Assessing potential impacts of climate change on China’s ski season length: a data-constrained approach

Abstract

Faced with the challenges presented by climate change, the necessity to navigate the sustainable development of China’s skiing industry emerges as a pivotal and pressing concern, especially considering the region’s vulnerability to climate variations and its burgeoning status as an emerging skiing destination. This study develops a methodology to assess the impact of climate change on ski resorts that is especially applicable in situations with limited climate station data and can be employed by ski industry stakeholders. A multiple linear regression (MLR) based on climate parameters from 1981 to 2010 is coupled with climate change projections under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. To validate the precision of the MLR model assessment, the study compares the results with those of the SkiSim 2.0 model — a model widely applied in various countries and regions for evaluating the impact of climate change on the ski industry. Results from the MLR model reveal that there are comparatively modest decreases in skiing days in the northeast and northwest regions, contrasting with significant declines in the eastern, central, and southwestern areas. The findings of the MLR model are largely consistent with SkiSim 2.0, thereby broadly validating this approach. A series of implications and recommendations for further studies and industry applications are provided.