Predicting the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of moso bamboo in China based on biomod2 model

IF 2.6 2区 农林科学 Q1 FORESTRY
Rui Gu, Songpo Wei, Jiarui Li, Shihui Zheng, Zhiteng Li, Guanglu Liu, Shaohui Fan
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Abstract

Moso bamboo (Phyllostachys edulis), a non-timber plant resource in China, possesses significant ecological and economic value. However, human activities and climate change have degraded its natural habitat, posing a significant threat to its widespread distribution. To address this, we used species distribution models based on 115 occurrence data and 10 ecological variables to predict the potential suitable areas and spatial change trends of moso bamboo in present and future periods in China. We also analyzed areas with environmental anomalies and the drivers of its geographical variations under climate change. The results showed that the biomod2 ensemble model, consisting of eleven integrated models, exhibited significantly improved accuracy compared to single models. Key environmental factors limiting its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range (bio2), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), precipitation seasonality (bio15), and elevation. Currently, the potential suitable habitat covers 152.74 × 104 km2, mainly from south of the Qinling-Huaihe River to north of the Tropic of Cancer. However, under future climate scenarios, these habitats will considerably shrink, especially in highly suitable areas. The moderately suitable habitat will fragment, and the low-suitability boundary will move northward. With the deepening impact of climate change, the entire distribution range will move towards higher latitudes. Hunan, Guizhou, Zhejiang, and western Jiangxi emerge as future climate refuges for moso bamboo, necessitating critical population protection. In summary, our research deepens our insight of how climate change drives the geographic distribution of moso bamboo and offers valuable theoretical support for its cultivation and conservation.

Abstract Image

基于biomod2模型预测气候变化对中国毛竹地理分布的影响
毛竹是中国的一种非木材植物资源,具有重要的生态和经济价值。然而,人类活动和气候变化导致其自然栖息地退化,对其广泛分布构成了严重威胁。为此,我们利用基于115个发生数据和10个生态变量的物种分布模型,预测了毛竹在中国当前和未来时期的潜在适宜区和空间变化趋势。我们还分析了环境异常区域以及气候变化下毛竹地理变化的驱动因素。结果表明,与单一模型相比,由 11 个综合模型组成的 biomod2 组合模型的准确性显著提高。限制其分布的主要环境因素包括平均昼夜温差(bio2)、最冷月最低气温(bio6)、降水季节性(bio15)和海拔高度。目前,潜在的适宜栖息地面积为 152.74 × 104 平方公里,主要分布在秦岭-淮河以南至北回归线以北地区。然而,在未来的气候情景下,这些栖息地将大幅缩小,尤其是在高度适宜地区。中度适宜栖息地将支离破碎,低适宜边界将向北移动。随着气候变化影响的加深,整个分布范围将向高纬度地区移动。湖南、贵州、浙江和江西西部将成为毛竹未来的气候避难所,因此有必要对毛竹种群进行重点保护。总之,我们的研究加深了我们对气候变化如何驱动毛竹地理分布的认识,并为毛竹的栽培和保护提供了宝贵的理论支持。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
3.60%
发文量
77
审稿时长
6-16 weeks
期刊介绍: The European Journal of Forest Research focuses on publishing innovative results of empirical or model-oriented studies which contribute to the development of broad principles underlying forest ecosystems, their functions and services. Papers which exclusively report methods, models, techniques or case studies are beyond the scope of the journal, while papers on studies at the molecular or cellular level will be considered where they address the relevance of their results to the understanding of ecosystem structure and function. Papers relating to forest operations and forest engineering will be considered if they are tailored within a forest ecosystem context.
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