600 years of wine must quality and April to August temperatures in western Europe 1420–2019

IF 3.8 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Climate of The Past Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI:10.5194/cp-20-1387-2024

Christian Pfister, Stefan Brönnimann, Andres Altwegg, Rudolf Brázdil, Laurent Litzenburger, Daniele Lorusso, Thomas Pliemon

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Abstract

Abstract. This study investigates the validity of wine must quality as an April-to-August temperature proxy between 1420 and 2019 based on expert ratings and quality measurements from Germany, Luxembourg, eastern France, and the Swiss Plateau. This is highly relevant as uncertainties remain on past climate variations during this period. The evidence was reviewed according to the best practice of historical climatology. Expert ratings tended to agree with Oechsle density measurements that gradually replaced them from the 1840s. A statistical model calibrated to predict wine must quality from climate data explains 75 % of the variance, underlining the potential value of wine must quality as a climate proxy. Premium crops were collected in years of early harvest involving high insolation during maturation, while poor crops resulted from very late harvests in cold and wet summers. An analysis of daily weather types for high- and low-quality years after 1763 shows marked differences. On a decadal timescale, the average quality was highest from 1470 to 1479, from 1536 to 1545, and from 1945 to 1954. Poor crops were collected in periods with prevailing cold and wet summers such as 1453 to 1466, 1485 to 1494, 1585 to 1614, 1685 to 1703, 1812 to 1821, and 1876 to 1936. In the period of enhanced warming after 1990, high quality became the rule.

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1420-2019 年西欧 600 年葡萄汁质量和四月至八月的气温

摘要本研究根据专家评级以及德国、卢森堡、法国东部和瑞士高原的质量测量结果，调查了 1420 年至 2019 年期间作为四月至八月温度替代物的葡萄汁质量的有效性。这一点非常重要，因为这一时期过去的气候变迁仍存在不确定性。根据历史气候学的最佳实践对证据进行了审查。专家们的评价与 Oechsle 密度测定结果趋于一致，后者从 19 世纪 40 年代起逐渐取代了 Oechsle 密度测定结果。一个根据气候数据预测葡萄汁质量的统计模型可以解释 75% 的差异，突出了葡萄汁质量作为气候替代物的潜在价值。优质葡萄在成熟期日照充足的早收年份收获，而劣质葡萄则在寒冷潮湿的夏季晚收。对 1763 年后优质年份和劣质年份的每日天气类型进行分析，结果显示出明显的差异。以十年为单位，平均质量最高的年份是 1470 年至 1479 年、1536 年至 1545 年以及 1945 年至 1954 年。在夏季普遍寒冷潮湿的时期，如 1453 年至 1466 年、1485 年至 1494 年、1585 年至 1614 年、1685 年至 1703 年、1812 年至 1821 年以及 1876 年至 1936 年，采集到的作物品质较差。在 1990 年后气候变暖的时期，高品质的葡萄成为主流。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Climate of The Past 地学-气象与大气科学

CiteScore

7.40

自引率

14.00%

发文量

120

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Climate of the Past (CP) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on the climate history of the Earth. CP covers all temporal scales of climate change and variability, from geological time through to multidecadal studies of the last century. Studies focusing mainly on present and future climate are not within scope. The main subject areas are the following: reconstructions of past climate based on instrumental and historical data as well as proxy data from marine and terrestrial (including ice) archives; development and validation of new proxies, improvements of the precision and accuracy of proxy data; theoretical and empirical studies of processes in and feedback mechanisms between all climate system components in relation to past climate change on all space scales and timescales; simulation of past climate and model-based interpretation of palaeoclimate data for a better understanding of present and future climate variability and climate change.