Solar Activity in the Last 20 Years and a Forecast of the 25th Solar Cycle

IF 0.6 4区物理与天体物理 Q4 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Cosmic Research Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI:10.1134/s0010952524600392

Y. I. Stozhkov, V. P. Okhlopkov

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Experimental data on solar activity (sunspot number, induction of solar polar magnetic field B_p, and others), characteristics of interplanetary space, and cosmic ray fluxes testify that the Sun has entered a deep minimum of its activity similar to the Dalton minimum. An almost functional relationship was found between maximum values of B_pmax observed in the solar activity minimum of the 11-year cycle and the next sunspot maximum. Based on this relationship, a simple method of forecasting maximum number of sunspots R_zmax and time course R_z(t) was developed. A forecast of the 25th solar cycle is given.

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过去 20 年的太阳活动和第 25 个太阳周期的预测

摘要有关太阳活动（太阳黑子数、太阳极磁场感应Bp等）、行星际空间特征和宇宙射线通量的实验数据证明，太阳已进入其活动的深度极小期，类似于道尔顿极小期。在 11 年周期的太阳活动最低点观测到的 Bpmax 最大值与下一个太阳黑子最大值之间几乎存在函数关系。根据这种关系，开发了一种预测太阳黑子最大数量 Rzmax 和时间过程 Rz(t) 的简单方法。给出了第 25 个太阳周期的预报。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Cosmic Research 地学天文-工程：宇航

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

33.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Cosmic Research publishes scientific papers covering all subjects of space science and technology, including the following: ballistics, flight dynamics of the Earth’s artificial satellites and automatic interplanetary stations; problems of transatmospheric descent; design and structure of spacecraft and scientific research instrumentation; life support systems and radiation safety of manned spacecrafts; exploration of the Earth from Space; exploration of near space; exploration of the Sun, planets, secondary planets, and interplanetary medium; exploration of stars, nebulae, interstellar medium, galaxies, and quasars from spacecraft; and various astrophysical problems related to space exploration. A chronicle of scientific events and other notices concerning the main topics of the journal are also presented.