Tracking the size of the estimation window in time-series data

Abstract

Purpose

This paper introduces a novel method, Variance Rule-based Window Size Tracking (VR-WT), for deriving a sequence of estimation window sizes. This approach not only identifies structural change points but also ascertains the optimal size of the estimation window. VR-WT is designed to achieve accurate model estimation and is versatile enough to be applied across a range of models in various disciplines.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes a new method named Variance Rule-based Window size Tracking (VR-WT), which derives a sequence of estimation window sizes. The concept of VR-WT is inspired by the Potential Scale Reduction Factor (PSRF), a tool used to evaluate the convergence and stationarity of MCMC.

Findings

Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that VR-WT accurately detects structural change points and select appropriate window sizes. The VR-WT is essential in applications where accurate estimation of model parameters and inference about their value, sign, and significance are critical. The VR-WT has also helped us understand shifts in parameter-based inference, ensuring stability across periods and highlighting how the timing and impact of market shocks vary across fields and datasets.

Originality/value

The first distinction of the VR-WT lies in its purpose and methodological differences. The VR-WT focuses on precise parameter estimation. By dynamically tracking window sizes, VR-WT selects flexible window sizes and enables the visualization of structural changes. The second distinction of VR-WT lies in its broad applicability and versatility. We conducted empirical applications across three fields of study: CAPM; interdependence analysis between global stock markets; and the study of time-dependent energy prices.