Extinctions Caused by Host-Range Expansion

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI:10.1137/23m1605582

Pei Yu, Pantea Pooladvand, Mark M. Tanaka, Lindi M. Wahl

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems, Volume 23, Issue 2, Page 1677-1703, June 2024.
Abstract.Nearly all emerging diseases in humans are a result of host-range expansion, in which a pathogen of one species evolves the ability to infect a new host species. To present a rigorous analysis of pathogen host-range expansion, we derive a Lotka–Volterra dynamical system with two competing host species and a single parasite species; the parasite infects only one of the host species. We provide a stability and bifurcation analysis of this model. We then ask what happens if the parasite evolves the ability to infect the alternate host, extending the model to include a parasite population with an expanded host range. We derive explicit global stability and bifurcation conditions for this four-dimensional model in terms of the system parameters. We demonstrate that only four outcomes may occur following the range expansion of a parasite or pathogen, and provide both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for these outcomes. While three of these outcomes were expected, the fourth is counterintuitive, predicting that host-range expansion can drive the original host species to extinction. For example, a native species could be driven to extinction by a longstanding native parasite if that parasite acquires the ability to infect a cultivated species. We briefly discuss the phenomena driving this unexpected prediction and its implications.

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宿主范围扩大导致灭绝

SIAM 应用动力系统期刊》，第 23 卷第 2 期，第 1677-1703 页，2024 年 6 月。摘要.几乎所有人类新发疾病都是宿主范围扩展的结果，即一个物种的病原体进化出感染新宿主物种的能力。为了对病原体宿主范围扩张进行严谨分析，我们推导了一个洛特卡-伏特拉（Lotka-Volterra）动力系统，其中有两个相互竞争的宿主物种和一个寄生虫物种；寄生虫只感染其中一个宿主物种。我们对这一模型进行了稳定性和分岔分析。然后，我们询问，如果寄生虫进化出感染另一宿主的能力，将模型扩展到包括宿主范围扩大的寄生虫种群，会发生什么情况。我们根据系统参数为这个四维模型推导出了明确的全局稳定性和分岔条件。我们证明了寄生虫或病原体范围扩大后可能出现的四种结果，并为这些结果提供了局部和全局渐近稳定性条件。其中三种结果是意料之中的，而第四种结果却与直觉相反，它预示着宿主范围的扩大可能会导致原宿主物种灭绝。例如，如果一种本地寄生虫获得了感染栽培物种的能力，那么该寄生虫可能会导致一种本地物种灭绝。我们将简要讨论推动这一意外预测的现象及其影响。

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.