Comparing risk profiles of international stock markets as functional data: COVID-19 versus the global financial crisis

Abstract

In this article, we aim to provide a detailed econometric analysis of the realized volatility in international stock markets of Brazil, China, Europe, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which represent a mix of large developing, and developed markets. For our purpose, we use the functional data analysis (FDA) framework, whence discrete volatility data were first transformed into continuous functions, and thereafter, derivatives of the continuous functions were investigated, and kinetic and potential energy associated is the volatility system were extracted. Results revealed that COVID-19 indeed had a significant effect on international financial market volatility for all the countries, with the exception of China. The realized volatility of the international financial markets did return to their pre-COVID levels in May 2020, and this recovery time was significantly faster than the 2008 financial crisis recovery period. Within the FDA framework, we further investigated the role of uncertainty on the realized volatility, specifically from an outbreak of an infectious disease (such as COVID-19) and a daily newspaper-based infectious disease index as the predictor. The regression analysis showed that the volatility of financial markets can be accurately modeled by this infectious disease index, but only for periods experiencing an epidemic or pandemic.