Climate change drives spatiotemporal mismatches between bivalves and mangrove in the Colombian Pacific coast

Abstract

The Piangua Anadara tuberculosa and Anadara similis are bivalve species thrive among mangrove roots and are crucial for vulnerable human communities, providing both economic and nutritional support. In the Colombian Pacific coast, significant efforts have been directed towards understanding the abundance and population structure of these mangrove bivalves. However, the impact of climate change on the spatiotemporal relationship between the potential distribution of these bivalves and their potential habitat, Rhizophora mangle, remains underexplored. We developed distinct Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) for both bivalve species and their potential habitat based on species presence-pseudo-absence data, soil physicochemical attributes, and bioclimatic variables projected for the present and future in the Colombian Pacific coast. The projections for 2030 and 2050 were formulated using the optimistic (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways –SSP1), intermediate (SSP2), and pessimistic (SSP5) climate change scenarios as proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its sixth report. Currently, there is a significant correlation between the potential distribution of the Piangua species and the mangroves on the Colombian Pacific coast. However, this relationship is expected to undergo spatiotemporal changes due to future climate shifts, especially by 2050 under the most pessimistic climate scenario (SSP5). Our findings offer valuable insights for the management and conservation of both the Piangua and the mangroves in the Colombian Pacific coast. Conservation efforts for the Piangua species should prioritize areas that are likely to remain suitable for both the species and its associated habitat, the mangroves.