{"title":"A mathematical simulation model to determine the optimal endoscopic screening strategy for detection of H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms.","authors":"Fumiaki Ishibashi, Kosuke Okusa, Yoshitaka Tokai, Toshiaki Hirasawa, Tomohiro Kawakami, Kentaro Mochida, Yuka Yanai, Chizu Yokoi, Yuko Hayashi, Shun-Ichiro Ozawa, Koji Uraushihara, Yohei Minato, Hiroyuki Nakanishi, Hiroya Ueyama, Mikinori Kataoka, Yuzo Toyama, Yuji Mizokami, Sho Suzuki","doi":"10.1007/s10120-024-01525-2","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The effectiveness of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening in cohorts with low Helicobacter pylori prevalence is unknown. This study aimed to develop an optimally efficient EGD screening strategy for detecting H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms (HpNGNs).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>EGD data of 12 institutions from 2016 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Age-related HpNGN prevalence, tumor growth rate, missing rate, and detection threshold size were calculated from the databases. Subsequently, using clinical data, a novel mathematical model that simultaneously simulated demographic changes and HpNGN detection was developed. Screening strategies using different starting ages (40/45/50 years) and intervals (2/5/10 years) were also compared. The detection rates of all tumors occurring within the virtual cohort and number-needed-to-test (NNT) were measured as outcomes.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Data of 519,368 EGDs and 97 HpNGNs (34 pure signet ring cell carcinomas, 26 gastric adenocarcinomas of the fundic gland type, 30 foveolar gastric adenoma-Raspberry type, and seven undifferentiated-type cancer cases) were analyzed. A virtual cohort with a 70-year time horizon was used to simulate the occurrence, growth, and detection of 346,5836 people. Among the strategies with detection rate > 50%, the screening strategy with a 5-year interval starting at 45 years of age had the lowest NNT. Adopting this strategy, most HpNGNs were detected at < 20 mm in size, and the deep submucosal invasion rate was less than 30%.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>A mathematical simulation model revealed that screening every 5 years starting at 45 years of age could efficiently assist in identifying HpNGNs at an early stage.</p>","PeriodicalId":12684,"journal":{"name":"Gastric Cancer","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Gastric Cancer","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10120-024-01525-2","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/6/27 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: The effectiveness of esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening in cohorts with low Helicobacter pylori prevalence is unknown. This study aimed to develop an optimally efficient EGD screening strategy for detecting H. pylori-naïve gastric neoplasms (HpNGNs).
Methods: EGD data of 12 institutions from 2016 to 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Age-related HpNGN prevalence, tumor growth rate, missing rate, and detection threshold size were calculated from the databases. Subsequently, using clinical data, a novel mathematical model that simultaneously simulated demographic changes and HpNGN detection was developed. Screening strategies using different starting ages (40/45/50 years) and intervals (2/5/10 years) were also compared. The detection rates of all tumors occurring within the virtual cohort and number-needed-to-test (NNT) were measured as outcomes.
Results: Data of 519,368 EGDs and 97 HpNGNs (34 pure signet ring cell carcinomas, 26 gastric adenocarcinomas of the fundic gland type, 30 foveolar gastric adenoma-Raspberry type, and seven undifferentiated-type cancer cases) were analyzed. A virtual cohort with a 70-year time horizon was used to simulate the occurrence, growth, and detection of 346,5836 people. Among the strategies with detection rate > 50%, the screening strategy with a 5-year interval starting at 45 years of age had the lowest NNT. Adopting this strategy, most HpNGNs were detected at < 20 mm in size, and the deep submucosal invasion rate was less than 30%.
Conclusions: A mathematical simulation model revealed that screening every 5 years starting at 45 years of age could efficiently assist in identifying HpNGNs at an early stage.
期刊介绍：
Gastric Cancer is an esteemed global forum that focuses on various aspects of gastric cancer research, treatment, and biology worldwide.
The journal promotes a diverse range of content, including original articles, case reports, short communications, and technical notes. It also welcomes Letters to the Editor discussing published articles or sharing viewpoints on gastric cancer topics.
Review articles are predominantly sought after by the Editor, ensuring comprehensive coverage of the field.
With a dedicated and knowledgeable editorial team, the journal is committed to providing exceptional support and ensuring high levels of author satisfaction. In fact, over 90% of published authors have expressed their intent to publish again in our esteemed journal.
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