Discretionary tone in reward-based crowdfunding: Do project owners talk their way to success?

IF 5.5 3区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

British Accounting Review Pub Date : 2025-05-01 DOI:10.1016/j.bar.2024.101433

Douglas Cumming , Yihui Lan , Yuan George Shan , Junru Zhang

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Abstract

This study examines the relationship between abnormal tone and project performance of reward-based crowdfunding (RBC) using the Kickstarter data from 2009 to 2020. We document a negative relationship between abnormal tone and the success of a project in the RBC campaign section, while a positive impact in the Risks and Challenges section. This outcome remains robust to a variety of sensitivity tests and after accounting for potential endogeneity concerns. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that the effect of abnormal tone in RBC on project success is contingent on project quality and legal jurisdiction. Further investigation of the concurrent effect of abnormal tone in the two sections shows that an increase in the discretionary tone, given that it is overly optimistic, has a negative effect on funding performance. Last, based on a machine learning Sent-Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, we explore up to 70 specific risk categories embedded in Kickstarter projects, and we find that eight of them are strongly and negatively associated with project success. Our paper provides valuable insights into the significance of disclosure and sheds light on the ongoing and increased regulations on crowdfunding platforms.

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奖励式众筹的自由裁量权：项目所有者是否靠口才获得成功？

本研究利用 Kickstarter 2009 年至 2020 年的数据，研究了异常语调与奖励式众筹（RBC）项目绩效之间的关系。我们在 RBC 活动部分记录了异常语调与项目成功之间的负相关关系，而在风险和挑战部分则记录了正向影响。在进行了各种敏感性测试并考虑了潜在的内生性问题后，这一结果仍然是稳健的。横截面分析表明，《风险与挑战》中的异常基调对项目成功的影响取决于项目质量和法律管辖权。对异常语气在两个部分中的并发影响的进一步调查表明，如果语气过于乐观，那么自由裁量语气的增加会对融资绩效产生负面影响。最后，基于机器学习的Sent-Latent Dirichlet Allocation模型，我们探讨了Kickstarter项目中包含的多达70种特定风险类别，发现其中8种与项目成功密切相关，且呈负相关。我们的论文就信息披露的重要性提供了宝贵的见解，并为正在进行和加强的众筹平台监管提供了启示。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

British Accounting Review BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

8.60

自引率

3.90%

发文量

审稿时长

76 days

期刊介绍： The British Accounting Review*is pleased to publish original scholarly papers across the whole spectrum of accounting and finance. The journal is eclectic and pluralistic and contributions are welcomed across a wide range of research methodologies (e.g. analytical, archival, experimental, survey and qualitative case methods) and topics (e.g. financial accounting, management accounting, finance and financial management, auditing, public sector accounting, social and environmental accounting; accounting education and accounting history), evidence from UK and non-UK sources are equally acceptable.