Stage III Melanoma: A Proposed Staging Model That Outperforms the American Joint Committee on Cancer Eighth Edition Staging System.

Abstract

National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines state that clinical stage III melanoma patients may undergo ultrasound surveillance of the nodal basin in lieu of complete lymph node dissection (CLND). This has led to an inability to accurately classify patients according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) eighth edition staging system because it uses the total number of positive lymph nodes from the CLND to assign a pathologic N stage. We propose a new model for clinical stage III melanoma patients that does not rely on the total number of positive lymph nodes. Instead, it uses Breslow depth, ulceration status, sentinel lymph node metastasis size, and extracapsular extension to stratify patients into groups 1 to 4. We compared our model's ability to predict melanoma-specific survival (MSS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS-LRFS) to the current AJCC system with and without CLND-data using a Cox proportional hazards model and Akaike Information Criteria weights. Although not reaching our predetermined level of statistical significance of 95%, our model was 5 times more likely to better predict MSS compared with the AJCC model with CLND. In addition, our model was significantly better than the AJCC model without CLND in predicting MSS. Our model performed significantly better than the AJCC model in predicting DMFS and DMFS-LRFS regardless of whether data from CLND were included.