Dynamics analysis of an influenza epidemic model with virus mutation incorporating log-normal Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process

Abstract

A stochastic influenza epidemic model where influenza virus can mutate into a mutant influenza virus is established to study the influence of environmental disturbance. And the transmission rate of the model is assumed to satisfy log-normal Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. We verify that there exists a unique global positive solution to the stochastic model. By constructing proper Lyapunov functions, sufficient conditions under which the stationary distribution exists are obtained. In addition, we discuss the extinction of the disease. Furthermore, we get the accurate expression of probability density function near the endemic equilibrium of the stochastic model. Finally, several numerical simulations are carried out to verify theoretical results and examine the influence of environmental noise.