Is Increasing Age at Marriage Really Effective in Reducing Completed Fertility? Evidence from the Multinomial analysis of the Fifth Round of the National Family Health Survey in India (2019-21)

Abstract

In accordance with our information, the age at first marriage of women is gradually increasing due to the increase in the level of education, a trend towards employment, and the reduction of social taboos, etc. On the basis of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (2019-21) conducted in India, this study examines whether women?s completed fertility is affected by their age at marriage in the presence of all other socioeconomic and demographic factors. The study includes a sample of 44,479 married women over the age of 45 years at the time of the NFHS-5 survey. The trend of completed fertility was examined using descriptive statistics. Bivariate analysis and multinomial logistic regression analysis were employed to show statistical significance. It was found that completed fertility declines gradually with increasing time at all ages at marriage (from NFHS-II to NFHS-V) and with increasing age at marriage in all four rounds of NFHS, completed fertility is reduced. Women who were 35 years and older at the time of marriage [ARRR = 2.619, 95% CI = 2.300, 2.983], who belonged to Hinduism [ARRR = 1.989, 95 % CI = 1.730, 2.287], who belonged to other castes [ARRR = 2.417, 95% CI = 2.120, 2.755], who had higher levels of education [ARRR = 21.424, 95% CI = 10.581, 43.378], who were exposed to mass media [ ARRR = 1.266, 95% CI = 1.158, 1.384], who were living in urban areas [ARRR = 1.266, 95% CI = 1.008, 1.284], and who belonged to the southern region [ARRR = 6.208, 95% CI = 4.923, 7.828] were more likely to have less completed fertility. This study showed that the likelihood of less completed fertility is strongly influenced by the factor of age at marriage.. KEYWORDS :Age at marriage, Completed fertility, Menopause, Likelihood, NFHS.