Forecasting Urban Housing Land Needs: A Comparative Analysis of Chinese Cities

Abstract

In urban centers across China, the actual annual land supply frequently fails to meet government projections, significantly impacting local economic and social development. This study bridges the gap in prospective analyses of governmental decision-making concerning urban housing land supply. Employing fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis, this research examines the housing land supply in 50 Chinese cities, including 16 first-tier and 34 non-first-tier cities. The goal is to explore the decision-making combinations that influence the supply of housing land, thereby aiding in the formulation of governmental policies. Our findings indicate that in first-tier cities, forward-looking decisions rely on low fiscal pressure, with purchase restrictions and land supply restructuring acting in tandem. In contrast, in non-first-tier cities, high population density or significant fiscal pressure necessitate enhancements in land supply structures without implementing purchase restrictions to sustain forward-looking governance. Additionally, while forward-looking decisions depend on numerous conditions, it is generally simpler to circumvent non-forward-looking decisions. This investigation integrates forward-looking theory into real estate research, offering valuable insights for the formulation of governmental land supply strategies.