{"title":"Forecasting interval-valued returns of crude oil: A novel kernel-based approach","authors":"Kun Yang, Xueqing Xu, Yunjie Wei, Shouyang Wang","doi":"10.1002/for.3167","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper proposes a novel kernel-based generalized random interval multilayer perceptron (KG-iMLP) method for predicting high-volatility interval-valued returns of crude oil. The KG-iMLP model is constructed by utilizing the \n<span></span><math>\n <msub>\n <mi>D</mi>\n <mi>K</mi>\n </msub></math> distance based on a kernel function, which outperforms the conventional Euclidean distance. Additionally, the optimal kernel function is estimated using the variance–covariance matrix of the prediction error, contributing to a better understanding of the overall characteristics of interval-valued data. The introduction of the kernel function renders the algorithms used for estimating machine learning parameters ineffective. Therefore, this paper further proposes a backward \n<span></span><math>\n <msub>\n <mi>D</mi>\n <mi>K</mi>\n </msub></math> distance of accumulative error propagation algorithm to estimate both the kernel function and model parameters, which provides a feasible approach for utilizing kernel function in interval neural networks. In the empirical analysis of weekly and daily returns of WTI crude oil, the superior predictive performance of the proposed method is demonstrated, enabling stable and accurate predictions for both point values and interval values. The model exhibits consistent outstanding performance across different network structures, showcasing the potential of KG-iMLP for crude oil price forecasting.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3167","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper proposes a novel kernel-based generalized random interval multilayer perceptron (KG-iMLP) method for predicting high-volatility interval-valued returns of crude oil. The KG-iMLP model is constructed by utilizing the
distance based on a kernel function, which outperforms the conventional Euclidean distance. Additionally, the optimal kernel function is estimated using the variance–covariance matrix of the prediction error, contributing to a better understanding of the overall characteristics of interval-valued data. The introduction of the kernel function renders the algorithms used for estimating machine learning parameters ineffective. Therefore, this paper further proposes a backward
distance of accumulative error propagation algorithm to estimate both the kernel function and model parameters, which provides a feasible approach for utilizing kernel function in interval neural networks. In the empirical analysis of weekly and daily returns of WTI crude oil, the superior predictive performance of the proposed method is demonstrated, enabling stable and accurate predictions for both point values and interval values. The model exhibits consistent outstanding performance across different network structures, showcasing the potential of KG-iMLP for crude oil price forecasting.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.