《中美科技合作协定》的回顾及其展望——基于博弈论的视角

Abstract

《中美科技合作协定》的签署历程与发展历史解释了中美两国签订该协定的动因与维持双边科技合作关系的考量，并深刻揭示了两国科技合作关系背后的经济与政治博弈。现阶段，美国对华战略认知的调整与其将科技问题安全化的倾向导致了《中美科技合作协定》遭遇续签危机，其未来走向成为中美各界尤其关心的问题。博弈论为中美科技关系的战略转型提供有效的分析框架。其中，中美猎鹿博弈模型揭示了美国对华科技脱钩力度较弱的情况下双方进行合作的进路，而重复囚徒困境博弈模型则指出长期合作与互信的建立才是中美实现双赢的关键。中美两国应努力消除分歧，构建合作与竞争并存的新型关系，避免零和游戏，共同推动科技进步和全球发展。 The signing process and development of the US-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement (US-China S&T Cooperation Agreement) explain the reasons for the signing of the agreement and the considerations for maintaining the bilateral S&T cooperation relationship between China and the US, and deeply reveals the economic and political games behind the S&T cooperation relationship between the two countries. At this stage, the adjustment of the U.S. strategic perception of China and its tendency to securitize science and technology issues have led to the renewal crisis of the US-China S&T Cooperation Agreement, and its future direction has become an issue of particular concern to all sectors in the U.S. and China. Game theory provides an effective analytical framework for the strategic transformation of Sino-US S&T relations. The Stag Hunt Game Model reveals the way forward for cooperation between the two sides in the case of weak US S&T decoupling from China, while the Repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma Game Model points out that the establishment of long-term cooperation and mutual trust is the key to achieving a win-win situation for both China and the US. China and the United States should strive to eliminate differences, build a new type of relationship where cooperation and competition coexist, avoid zero-sum games, and jointly promote scientific and technological progress and global development.