Digging into detectability: uncovering how temperature influences detection probability of the fossorial Temblor legless lizard

Abstract

Knowledge of species distributions is critical for conservation, but surveying for rare, under-studied species presents many challenges. A two-phase occupancy study can increase knowledge gained from early occupancy studies of a species by quickly using data from the first survey period to revise the study design for a second period. The Temblor legless lizard Anniella alexanderae is a recently described fossorial species found in the southwestern San Joaquin Valley, CA, USA, and its status is currently under review by state and federal wildlife agencies. As a fossorial species that is rarely surface active, Temblor legless lizards might be unavailable for detection at certain times of year or under inhospitable conditions (e.g., hot, dry weather), indicating the importance of accounting for false negative surveys when determining its distribution. We used a multi-scale occupancy model to disentangle detection probability, availability for detection, and occupancy for Temblor legless lizards. Focusing our effort from mid-February to mid-April when temperatures are mild and soil moisture is expected to be higher near the surface, we surveyed a total of 89 sites in 2022 (n=60) and 2023 (n=68), detecting Temblor legless lizards at 12 sites, including 5 new localities. Detection probability was positively related to temperature during our late winter-early spring survey period, and availability for detection was consistently high with minimal fluctuation within each year. Nevertheless, repeated surveys with non-detection can increase confidence this fossorial lizard does not occur at a site. Temblor legless lizards were more likely to occur at sites near ephemeral streams, and in areas without high clay soil content, but more investigation could help to discern drivers of occurrence. Our study provides valuable information for optimizing surveys for Temblor legless lizards and suggests promising directions for future research on this species′ ecology.