What are the Prospects of Propane-Powered Off-Grid Electricity?

Abstract

The study contributes to the literature on propane's prospects and viability for off-grid energy, implications for stakeholders, and alignment with sustainable energy goal 7. It examines the prospects of propane-powered off-grid electricity in the Nigerian electricity supply industry (NESI). The study assessed propane’s economic viability and environmental implications as a replacement for diesel (AGO). Specifically, the analyses included comparative levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), net present value (NPV) modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and carbon emissions estimation. The study found that the cost of energy from diesel (AGO) is 1.52 to 2.86 times of grid MYTO tariffs and 1.84 to 3.92 times of the MYTO tariffs for All-in LCOE. The average total LCOEs were 1.01 to 1.63 times for the commercial bank and 1.02 to 1.63 times for the residential estate. The LCOEs for the AGO generators ranged from $0.183 to $0.286 (fuel only) and $0.335 to $0.392 per kWh all-in. These comparative LCOEs are between 110% and 263.8% of the electricity tariff averages in the US (residential: $0.155/kWh and commercial: $0.127/kWh) and the UK (£0.245/kWh) and, accordingly, confirm the expensive nature of AGO-based electricity in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study found that propane-based off-grid energy is a viable substitute for AGO and cheaper than the current Band A tariff of N206.80KWh, with savings between 10.52% and 45.25%. The study also shows that propane is a cleaner and more efficient source of energy that can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 13.8% and as high as 31.1% depending on the generator-load match efficiency with the associated monetized savings between $9.18 and $20.62 per MT CO2e. The study recommends government incentives and private sector investments towards adopting propane for off-grid electricity, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions, achieving Nigeria’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) plan, and promoting sustainable development.