Identifying spatially differentiated pathways for rural transformation in Pakistan

Vandercasteelen Joachim, Namesh Nazar, Yahya Bajwa, Willem Janssen
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Abstract

This paper proposes a conceptual and empirical framework to develop rural transformation strategies tailored to the agroecological potential and market access of rural areas in Pakistan. Such a framework allows to move away from stereotypical countrywide policies as in use in Pakistan and many other countries. Using publicly available geospatial measures of vegetation greenness and an urban gravity model to proxy the agricultural market demand, we classify Pakistan’s rural districts into categories with similar comparative advantages and describe dominant livelihood activities. The framework recommends market-based approaches to support commercial agriculture or non-agriculture business development in well-connected areas and where households have accumulated human and physical capital. In areas with less developed agricultural potential or market access, households will benefit from area-based and community-driven development, skill development, and labor programs. Since data collection is often challenging in rural areas, statistical agencies can use such an empirical framework to advise policymakers on prioritizing public investments and tailoring rural transformation pathways. In addition, statistical agencies can also extend the framework at different levels of resolution, from national to local level, and complement it with primary data sources to validate the usefulness of the approach.
确定巴基斯坦农村转型的空间差异路径
本文提出了一个概念性和实证性框架,以根据巴基斯坦农村地区的农业生态潜力和市场准入情况制定农村转型战略。这种框架有助于摆脱巴基斯坦和其他许多国家所采用的全国性刻板政策。利用可公开获得的植被绿度地理空间测量方法和城市引力模型来代表农业市场需求,我们将巴基斯坦的农村地区划分为具有相似比较优势的类别,并描述了主要的生计活动。该框架建议在交通便利、家庭积累了人力和物质资本的地区,采用基于市场的方法支持商业农业或非农业企业的发展。在农业潜力或市场准入欠发达的地区,家庭将受益于以地区和社区为导向的发展、技能发展和劳动力计划。由于在农村地区收集数据往往具有挑战性,统计机构可利用这一经验框架,就公共投资的优先次序和农村转型路径的定制向政策制定者提供建议。此外,统计机构还可将该框架扩展到从国家到地方的不同解决层面,并通过原始数据来源对其进行补充,以验证该方法的实用性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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