Trends in predicted age at maturity of Sablefish from 22 years of surveys

IF 1.8 3区 农林科学 Q2 FISHERIES
C. J. Rodgveller, K. B. Echave
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Objective

Our aim was to predict the maturity (will spawn or immature) of Sablefish Anoplopoma fimbria in Alaska for past years during a period when macroscopic data are not of utility and histological observations are not available.

Methods

In a previous study, female maturity was determined using histology and a model was developed that predicted maturity using maternal length, age, and relative condition. We used this published model to predict the maturity of individual Sablefish collected annually in the same area on the same dates. The maturity predictions were used to create predicted time series of maturity at age for surveys conducted over 22 years.

Result

A k-means cluster analysis of annual maturity parameters revealed that data should be split into two clusters. These groups were chronologically sequential (1998–2010 and 2011–2019), with two exceptions: 2015 and 2017 were assigned to the early time period. We created two chronological time blocks by incorporating the two outlier years into the late period post hoc, as we are not aware of mechanisms that may have caused these two outliers, and it is important for stock assessment to capture the signal and not the noise. Sablefish in the later period were predicted to mature later than fish in the earlier period; age at 50% maturity was 5.5 years in the early period and 6.8 years in the later period, and the slope was shallower in the later period.

Conclusion

There are often gaps in reliable maturity data. This case study illustrates that limited histological data sets can be used to predict maturity in years without ovary samples and illustrates how these data can be grouped based on similarities and chronology for use in stock assessment. We recommend more histological studies in the future to test assumptions of the predictive model, and we recommend evaluations of other factors, such as environmental time series, that may be drivers of annual maturity.

Abstract Image

22 年调查中貂鱼成熟年龄的预测趋势
目的 我们的目的是预测阿拉斯加黑貂鱼 Anoplopoma fimbria 过去几年的成熟度(将产卵或未成熟),因为在此期间,宏观数据不实用,也无法获得组织学观察结果。 方法 在之前的一项研究中,雌鱼的成熟度是通过组织学来确定的,并建立了一个模型,通过母鱼的体长、年龄和相对状况来预测成熟度。我们使用这个已发布的模型来预测每年在同一地区、同一日期采集的貂鱼个体的成熟度。成熟度预测用于创建 22 年调查的成熟年龄预测时间序列。 结果 对年度成熟度参数进行 k-means 聚类分析后发现,数据应分为两组。这些群组按时间顺序排列(1998-2010 年和 2011-2019 年),但有两个例外:2015 年和 2017 年被归入早期时间段。我们将这两个异常年份纳入晚期时间段,创建了两个按时间顺序排列的时间段,因为我们不知道可能造成这两个异常值的机制,而且对于种群评估来说,重要的是捕捉信号而不是噪音。据预测,后期的黑貂鱼比前期的鱼成熟得晚;前期的 50%成熟年龄为 5.5 岁,后期为 6.8 岁,后期的斜率较浅。 结论 可靠的成熟度数据往往是空白。本案例研究说明,在没有卵巢样本的年份,可以利用有限的组织学数据集预测成熟度,并说明如何根据相似性和年代学对这些数据进行分组,以用于种群评估。我们建议今后开展更多的组织学研究,以检验预测模型的假设,并建议对可能影响年成熟度的其他因素(如环境时间序列)进行评估。
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来源期刊
Marine and Coastal Fisheries
Marine and Coastal Fisheries FISHERIES-MARINE & FRESHWATER BIOLOGY
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
5.90%
发文量
40
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management, and Ecosystem Science publishes original and innovative research that synthesizes information on biological organization across spatial and temporal scales to promote ecologically sound fisheries science and management. This open-access, online journal published by the American Fisheries Society provides an international venue for studies of marine, coastal, and estuarine fisheries, with emphasis on species'' performance and responses to perturbations in their environment, and promotes the development of ecosystem-based fisheries science and management.
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