{"title":"Counterurbanisation in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic in New South Wales, 2016-21","authors":"Neil Argent , Paul Plummer","doi":"10.1016/j.habitatint.2024.103118","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>In the context of a secular decline in internal migration across more developed nations, this paper examines the degree of counterurbanisation in New South Wales – Australia's most populous state – for 2016-21, a period that included the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a nuanced demarcation of ‘metropolitan’ and ‘non-metropolitan’, the paper investigates how genuinely counter-urban and pro-rural these movements are. The paper also explores the role of rural amenity as a ‘pull’ factor on city populations, using the most influential elements of the rural environment that best predict in-, out-migration and net-migration flows as separate measures rather than combine them into an index of composite variables. The results suggest that counterurbanisation exists as a particular migration current in NSW, though the spatial patterning of in- and net migration rates suggests that exurbanisation and displaced urbanisation more accurately describe and explain the vast majority of moves. Relatively high in- and net migration rates recorded in the most remote local government areas also suggest an element of anti-urbanisation, perhaps in response to the COVID-19 public health measures. Spatial regression modelling of selected amenity indicators against in-, out- and net migration produced high coefficients (Spearman's rho) for the in- and out-migration models, while the net migration model registered coefficients about half the size of the other two models. Two indicators – median slope and tourism employment – were strong and statistically significant influences over the in- and net migration models, and in the direction hypothesised. These results suggest that counterurbanisation is substantially influenced by the presence of landscapes of varied relief and with some tourism attraction potential.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48376,"journal":{"name":"Habitat International","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Habitat International","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0197397524001188","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"DEVELOPMENT STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In the context of a secular decline in internal migration across more developed nations, this paper examines the degree of counterurbanisation in New South Wales – Australia's most populous state – for 2016-21, a period that included the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a nuanced demarcation of ‘metropolitan’ and ‘non-metropolitan’, the paper investigates how genuinely counter-urban and pro-rural these movements are. The paper also explores the role of rural amenity as a ‘pull’ factor on city populations, using the most influential elements of the rural environment that best predict in-, out-migration and net-migration flows as separate measures rather than combine them into an index of composite variables. The results suggest that counterurbanisation exists as a particular migration current in NSW, though the spatial patterning of in- and net migration rates suggests that exurbanisation and displaced urbanisation more accurately describe and explain the vast majority of moves. Relatively high in- and net migration rates recorded in the most remote local government areas also suggest an element of anti-urbanisation, perhaps in response to the COVID-19 public health measures. Spatial regression modelling of selected amenity indicators against in-, out- and net migration produced high coefficients (Spearman's rho) for the in- and out-migration models, while the net migration model registered coefficients about half the size of the other two models. Two indicators – median slope and tourism employment – were strong and statistically significant influences over the in- and net migration models, and in the direction hypothesised. These results suggest that counterurbanisation is substantially influenced by the presence of landscapes of varied relief and with some tourism attraction potential.
期刊介绍:
Habitat International is dedicated to the study of urban and rural human settlements: their planning, design, production and management. Its main focus is on urbanisation in its broadest sense in the developing world. However, increasingly the interrelationships and linkages between cities and towns in the developing and developed worlds are becoming apparent and solutions to the problems that result are urgently required. The economic, social, technological and political systems of the world are intertwined and changes in one region almost always affect other regions.