Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival Based on Ferritin and Transferrin Ratio in Breast Cancer Patients.

Abstract

Background: Our objective is to develop a predictive model utilizing the ferritin and transferrin ratio (FTR) and clinical factors to forecast overall survival (OS) in breast cancer (BC) patients.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 2858 BC patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2021. Subsequently, the cohort of 2858 BC patients underwent random assignment into distinct subsets: a training cohort comprising 2002 patients and a validation cohort comprising 856 patients, maintaining a proportional ratio of 7:3. Employing multivariable Cox regression analysis within the training cohort, we derived a prognostic nomogram. The predictive performance was assessed using calibration curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis.

Results: The final prognostic model included the TNM stage, subtype, hemoglobin levels, and the ferritin-transferrin ratio. The nomogram achieved a C-index of .794 (95% CI: .777-.810). The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for OS at 3, 5, and 7 years for BC, with area under the time-dependent curves of .812, .782, and .773, respectively. These values notably outperformed those of the conventional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis reaffirmed the greater net benefit of our nomogram compared to the TNM stage. These findings were subsequently validated in the independent validation cohort.

Conclusion: The FTR-based prognostic model may predict a patient's OS better than the TNM stage in a clinical setting. The nomogram can provide an early, affordable, and reliable tool for survival prediction, as well as aid clinicians in treatment option-making and prognosis evaluation. However, further multi-center prospective trials are required to confirm the reliability of the existing nomogram.