Decoupling Warming and Monsoon Precipitation Over the Last 3110 Years in Northwestern Yunnan Province, Southwestern China

Abstract

Understanding the variability and related dynamic mechanisms of the Indian summer monsoon evolution over the past millenniums is crucial for disaster prevention and mitigation in the context of strengthening global warming. Here, we present a high‐resolution hydroclimate reconstruction over the past 3110 years in northwestern Yunnan Province, southwestern China, based on grain size analysis using the End‐member modeling algorithm and other environmental proxies. The results indicate that the temperature in northwestern Yunnan Province generally decreased since 3110 cal. yr BP, aligning with other temperature records on regional and global scales. Precipitation in the study area remained relatively stable before 1000 cal. yr BP, but exhibited an obvious out‐phase change compared with the temperature records over multidecadal to centennial timescale. While after 1000 cal. yr BP, the precipitation steadily increased, revealing the hydroclimate pattern of notably dry Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and relatively wet Little Ice Age (LIA) in the study area. The decoupling combination of temperature and precipitation spanning the MWP and LIA in southwestern China contrasts with that in the East Asian summer monsoon area and the Indian subcontinent which is also controlled by the Indian summer monsoon, indicating the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation in the Asian summer monsoon region. The discussion about dynamic mechanisms points out that solar activity emerges as a significant factor influencing regional temperature changes, and El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Intertropical Convergence Zone migration jointly impact the precipitation change in the study area and the hydroclimate discrepancy in the Asian summer monsoon region.