Spatial distribution models and biodiversity of phytoplankton cysts in the Black Sea

Nina Dzhembekova, I. Zlateva, F. Rubino, Manuel Belmonte, Valentina Doncheva, Ivan Popov, S. Moncheva
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Abstract

The current study employed diverse statistical and machine learning techniques to investigate the biodiversity and spatial distribution of phytoplankton cysts in the Black Sea. The MaxEnt distribution modeling technique was used to forecast the habitat suitability for the cysts of three potentially toxic microalgal taxa (Lingulodinium polyedra, Polykrikos hartmannii, and Alexandrium spp.). The key variables controlling the habitat suitability of Alexandrium spp. and L. polyedra were nitrates and temperature, while for the P. hartmannii cysts, nitrates and salinity. The region with the highest likelihood of L. polyedra cyst occurrence appears to be in the western coastal and shelf waters, which coincides with the areas where L. polyedra red tides have been documented. The projected habitat suitability of the examined species partially overlapped, perhaps as a result of their cohabitation within the phytoplankton community and shared preferences for specific environmental conditions, demonstrating similar survival strategies. The north-western region of the Black Sea was found to be the most suitable environment for the studied potentially toxic species, presumably posing a greater risk for the onset of blooming events. Two distinct aspects of cysts’ ecology and settlement were observed: the dispersal of cysts concerns their movement within the water column from one place to another prior to settling, while habitat suitability pertains to the particular environment required for their survival, growth, and germination. Therefore, it is crucial to validate the model in order to accurately determine a suitable habitat as well as understand the transportation patterns linked to the particular hydrodynamic properties of the water column and the distinct features of the local environment.
黑海浮游植物囊胞的空间分布模式和生物多样性
目前的研究采用了多种统计和机器学习技术来研究黑海浮游植物孢囊的生物多样性和空间分布。MaxEnt 分布建模技术用于预测三种潜在有毒微藻类群(Lingulodinium polyedra、Polykrikos hartmannii 和 Alexandrium spp.)孢囊的栖息地适宜性。控制亚历山大藻类和多角藻类栖息地适宜性的关键变量是硝酸盐和温度,而控制哈特曼藻类包囊栖息地适宜性的关键变量是硝酸盐和盐度。发生多角体囊虫的可能性最大的区域似乎是西部沿海和陆架水域,这与记录到多角体囊虫赤潮的区域相吻合。所研究物种的预计栖息地适宜性部分重叠,这可能是由于它们在浮游植物群落中同居,对特定环境条件有共同的偏好,表现出相似的生存策略。研究发现,黑海西北部地区最适合所研究的潜在有毒物种生存,这可能会给藻华事件的发生带来更大的风险。研究人员观察到了孢囊生态学和沉降的两个不同方面:孢囊的扩散涉及其在沉降前在水体中从一个地方到另一个地方的移动,而栖息地的适宜性则涉及其生存、生长和发芽所需的特定环境。因此,必须对模型进行验证,以便准确确定合适的栖息地,并了解与水体的特殊水动力特性和当地环境的明显特征有关的运输模式。
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