Mapping Groundwater Potential Zones with GIS-RS-AHP Under Climate Change: Case of Mostaganem Plateau, Northwest Algeria

Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI:10.12912/27197050/186667

Cherifa Hanene Kamelia Chemirik, D. Baahmed, Rachid Nedjai, Djamel Boudjemline, Ikram Mahcer

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Abstract

In arid regions with increasing water needs due to growing populations and agriculture, heightened by climate change, groundwater arises as a crucial asset. This research evaluated climate change influence on groundwater potential zones (GPZs) during 2000 and 2014, within the Mostaganem plateau’s alluvial aquifer in Algeria, using a methodology that integrates analytical hierarchy process (AHP), remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS). Forecasts for 2030 and 2050 were conducted using the QGIS MOLUSCE plugin. Findings reveal a (30.29%) decrease in zones of moderate potential, the vanishing of high potential sectors, alongside a (7.53%) and a (22.1%) rise in fair potential and low potential, respectively, from 2000 to 2014. Between 2014 and 2030, fair and moderate potential decrease by 6.62% and 0.48%, while low potential zones see a 7.47% increase. These shifts are linked to changes in rainfall distribution, and land use land cover (LULC), notably intensive agriculture of herbaceous crops. Slight changes are anticipated between 2030 and 2050, possibly due to the onset of a resilience equilibrium from 2030 onwards. These findings are crucial as a preliminary investigation, highlighting the necessity of optimal groundwater management.

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利用 GIS-RS-AHP 绘制气候变化下的地下水潜力区：阿尔及利亚西北部莫斯塔加内姆高原案例

在干旱地区，由于人口和农业的增长，对水的需求日益增加，而气候变化又加剧了这一需求，因此地下水成为重要的资产。本研究采用分析层次过程（AHP）、遥感（RS）和地理信息系统（GIS）相结合的方法，评估了 2000 年和 2014 年期间气候变化对阿尔及利亚莫斯塔加内姆高原冲积含水层中地下水潜力区（GPZ）的影响。使用 QGIS MOLUSCE 插件对 2030 年和 2050 年进行了预测。研究结果表明，从 2000 年到 2014 年，中等潜力区减少了 30.29%，高潜力区消失了，而中等潜力区和低潜力区分别增加了 7.53%和 22.1%。从 2014 年到 2030 年，中等和一般潜力区分别减少了 6.62% 和 0.48%，而低潜力区则增加了 7.47%。这些变化与降雨分布和土地利用、土地覆盖（LULC）的变化有关，尤其是草本作物的集约化农业。预计在 2030 年至 2050 年期间会出现轻微变化，这可能是由于从 2030 年起开始出现恢复力平衡。作为一项初步调查，这些发现至关重要，凸显了优化地下水管理的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology

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