METHODOLOGY AND CHALLENGES OF SURROGATE MODELLING METHODS FOR MULTI-FIDELITY EXPENSIVE BLACK-BOX PROBLEMS

Abstract

Many industrial design problems are characterized by a lack of an analytical expression defining the relationship between design variables and chosen quality metrics. Evaluating the quality of new designs is therefore restricted to running a predetermined process such as physical testing of prototypes. When these processes carry a high cost, choosing how to gather further data can be very challenging, whether the end goal is to accurately predict the quality of future designs or to find an optimal design. In the multi-fidelity setting, one or more approximations of a design’s performance are available at varying costs and accuracies. Surrogate modelling methods have long been applied to problems of this type, combining data from multiple sources into a model which guides further sampling. Many challenges still exist; however, the foremost among them is choosing when and how to rely on available low-fidelity sources. This tutorial-style paper presents an introduction to the field of surrogate modelling for multi-fidelity expensive black-box problems, including classical approaches and open questions in the field. An illustrative example using Australian elevation data is provided to show the potential downfalls in blindly trusting or ignoring low-fidelity sources, a question that has recently gained much interest in the community.