{"title":"Sharpe-optimal volatility futures carry","authors":"Björn Uhl","doi":"10.1057/s41260-024-00359-y","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Holding volatility as part of an institutional portfolio is often found not to benefit the overall characteristics of the resulting portfolio. This applies to both simple buy and hold but also to short-selling VIX futures to harvest the volatility risk premium. We show that the latter generates positive returns but is unlikely to benefit an existing equity portfolio due to the high correlation with the returns of the S&P 500. Instead, we propose to harvest the volatility risk premium using the full term structure of the VIX in a robust Markowitz (J Financ 7(1):77–91, 1952. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974)-framework based on Pedersen et al. (Financ Anal J 77(2):124–151, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2020.1854543). We show that VIX carry forecasts have predictive power for the futures returns and consequently use these as a market return expectations. In a number of out-of-sample tests, we find that such <i>ex ante</i> Sharpe-optimal portfolios not only yield statistically significant positive performances but also add significant Alpha over typical equity and fixed income factor returns. Several robustness tests confirm that these findings are insensitive to the specific parameter choices. Overall, we conclude that the volatility risk premium can be harvested profitably with a simple dynamic framework using the full term structure of VIX futures—both stand-alone and in the context of an existing institutional portfolio.</p>","PeriodicalId":45953,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asset Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Asset Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-024-00359-y","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Holding volatility as part of an institutional portfolio is often found not to benefit the overall characteristics of the resulting portfolio. This applies to both simple buy and hold but also to short-selling VIX futures to harvest the volatility risk premium. We show that the latter generates positive returns but is unlikely to benefit an existing equity portfolio due to the high correlation with the returns of the S&P 500. Instead, we propose to harvest the volatility risk premium using the full term structure of the VIX in a robust Markowitz (J Financ 7(1):77–91, 1952. https://doi.org/10.2307/2975974)-framework based on Pedersen et al. (Financ Anal J 77(2):124–151, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2020.1854543). We show that VIX carry forecasts have predictive power for the futures returns and consequently use these as a market return expectations. In a number of out-of-sample tests, we find that such ex ante Sharpe-optimal portfolios not only yield statistically significant positive performances but also add significant Alpha over typical equity and fixed income factor returns. Several robustness tests confirm that these findings are insensitive to the specific parameter choices. Overall, we conclude that the volatility risk premium can be harvested profitably with a simple dynamic framework using the full term structure of VIX futures—both stand-alone and in the context of an existing institutional portfolio.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Asset Management covers:new investment strategies, methodologies and techniquesnew products and trading developmentsimportant regulatory and legal developmentsemerging trends in asset managementUnder the guidance of its expert Editors and an eminent international Editorial Board, Journal of Asset Management has developed to provide an international forum for latest thinking, techniques and developments for the Fund Management Industry, from high-growth investment strategies to modelling and managing risk, from active management to index tracking. The Journal has established itself as a key bridge between applied academic research, commercial best practice and regulatory interests, globally.Each issue of Journal of Asset Management publishes detailed, authoritative briefings, analysis, research and reviews by leading experts in the field, to keep subscribers up to date with the latest developments and thinking in asset management.Journal of Asset Management covers:asset allocation hedge fund strategies risk definition and management index tracking performance measurement stock selection investment methodologies and techniques portfolio management and weighting product development and innovation active asset management style analysis strategies to match client profiles time horizons emerging markets alternative investments derivatives and hedging instruments pensions economics