{"title":"All Road User Casualties (Killed) in Great Britain from 1926. Linear and Nonlinear Trends with Persistent Data","authors":"Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana","doi":"10.1007/s40953-024-00398-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper deals with the analysis of road casualties in Great Britain, using annual data since 1926. Based on the persistent nature of the data, fractional integration methods are used that include linear and non-linear (structural breaks) models. The results indicate that when the whole data set is employed the series is nonstationary I(1) implying permanency of shocks. However, considering data starting in 1964 we observe a significant negative time trend along with a lower degree of integration that implies transitory shocks. In order to avoid the abrupt change produced by the break, a nonlinear deterministic trend model based on Chebyshev polynomials in time is also considered with the whole sample, and though the order of integration is much lower than 1, the unit root null hypothesis cannot yet be rejected.</p>","PeriodicalId":42219,"journal":{"name":"JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-024-00398-7","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper deals with the analysis of road casualties in Great Britain, using annual data since 1926. Based on the persistent nature of the data, fractional integration methods are used that include linear and non-linear (structural breaks) models. The results indicate that when the whole data set is employed the series is nonstationary I(1) implying permanency of shocks. However, considering data starting in 1964 we observe a significant negative time trend along with a lower degree of integration that implies transitory shocks. In order to avoid the abrupt change produced by the break, a nonlinear deterministic trend model based on Chebyshev polynomials in time is also considered with the whole sample, and though the order of integration is much lower than 1, the unit root null hypothesis cannot yet be rejected.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Quantitative Economics (JQEC) is a refereed journal of the Indian Econometric Society (TIES). It solicits quantitative papers with basic or applied research orientation in all sub-fields of Economics that employ rigorous theoretical, empirical and experimental methods. The Journal also encourages Short Papers and Review Articles. Innovative and fundamental papers that focus on various facets of Economics of the Emerging Market and Developing Economies are particularly welcome. With the help of an international Editorial board and carefully selected referees, it aims to minimize the time taken to complete the review process while preserving the quality of the articles published.
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