Exploring the Dynamics of the Elderly Population and Economic Growth: A Comparative Analysis Across Continents

IF 2.8 2区社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Social Indicators Research Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI:10.1007/s11205-024-03353-4

Thaveesha Jayawardhana, Ruwan Jayathilaka, Sachini Anuththara, Thamasha Nimnadi, Ridhmi Karadanaarachchi, Kethaka Galappaththi

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Abstract

This paper explores the cause-and-effect relationship between the elderly population and global economic growth, focusing on different continents. A panel dataset spanning from 1961 to 2020 is utilized, with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) serving as the key measure for economic growth, represented as the percentage change in annual GDP. The study specifically centers on individuals aged 65 and above as a percentage of the total population. The analysis employs a Panel Granger causality test to assess the impact of the elderly population on economic growth. The results reveal a unidirectional Granger causality for Africa and Oceania, suggesting a one-way influence from the elderly population to economic growth. Conversely, instances of bidirectional Granger causality are identified for Asia, Europe, North America, and South America, indicating a mutual influence between the elderly population and economic growth during the study period. The study concludes that an endogenous relationship between economic growth and the elderly population emerges, but notably, this relationship becomes apparent only after an economy has completed its transition in economic development. This implies that the dynamics of the elderly population and economic growth are interlinked, with the nature of their interaction becoming more pronounced in the later stages of economic development.

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探索老年人口与经济增长的动态关系：跨洲比较分析

本文以各大洲为研究对象，探讨了老年人口与全球经济增长之间的因果关系。本文采用的是 1961 年至 2020 年的面板数据集，以国内生产总值（GDP）作为衡量经济增长的关键指标，用每年 GDP 的百分比变化来表示。研究特别关注 65 岁及以上人口占总人口的百分比。分析采用面板格兰杰因果检验来评估老年人口对经济增长的影响。结果显示，非洲和大洋洲存在单向格兰杰因果关系，表明老年人口对经济增长的影响是单向的。相反，亚洲、欧洲、北美洲和南美洲出现了双向格兰杰因果关系，表明在研究期间老年人口与经济增长之间存在相互影响。研究得出结论，经济增长与老年人口之间存在内生关系，但值得注意的是，这种关系只有在一个经济体完成经济发展转型之后才会变得明显。这意味着老年人口的动态变化与经济增长是相互关联的，其相互作用的性质在经济发展的后期阶段更加明显。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Social Indicators Research Multiple-

CiteScore

6.30

自引率

6.50%

发文量

174

期刊介绍： Since its foundation in 1974, Social Indicators Research has become the leading journal on problems related to the measurement of all aspects of the quality of life. The journal continues to publish results of research on all aspects of the quality of life and includes studies that reflect developments in the field. It devotes special attention to studies on such topics as sustainability of quality of life, sustainable development, and the relationship between quality of life and sustainability. The topics represented in the journal cover and involve a variety of segmentations, such as social groups, spatial and temporal coordinates, population composition, and life domains. The journal presents empirical, philosophical and methodological studies that cover the entire spectrum of society and are devoted to giving evidences through indicators. It considers indicators in their different typologies, and gives special attention to indicators that are able to meet the need of understanding social realities and phenomena that are increasingly more complex, interrelated, interacted and dynamical. In addition, it presents studies aimed at defining new approaches in constructing indicators.