Early Warning Simulation of Urban Vulnerability in Coal-Resource-Based Cities Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

Coal-resource-based cities, as one of the important types of typical resource-based cities in China, have strong characteristics of instability, sensitivity, and fragility, exhibiting a series of vulnerability features of the human-land system. Previous studies have lacked a deeper investigation into the vulnerability of such cities from the perspective of coupling feedback mechanisms among various elements or subsystems. This paper adopts Bohle et al.’s “Dual Structure Model” of vulnerability to establish an indicator system for vulnerability warning in coal-resource-based cities. Using Fushun City as a sample, a dynamic simulation model of vulnerability in coal-resource-based cities is constructed based on system dynamics for warning simulation calculations, analyzing the evolution trend of vulnerability in Fushun City from 2010 to 2022. The results show the following: (1) from 2010 to 2022, the urban vulnerability of Fushun City transitioned from a medium warning level to a relatively safe level, showing a trend of annual reduction and improvement, undergoing three development stages of significant reduction, fluctuation stabilization, and slight rebound. (2) Due to the causal relationships among various elements within the vulnerability subsystems of Fushun City, differences exist in the contribution levels of vulnerability subsystems during the period 2010–2022, under the combined effects of sensitivity and adaptability factors. The contribution rate of the natural subsystem was the highest from 2010 to 2014, while, from 2016 to 2019, urban vulnerability began to shift towards an economically and socially dominant type. Influenced by the pandemic, Fushun City’s overall vulnerability has shown an upward trend since 2020 compared to the previous stage. Finally, specific policy suggestions are proposed for Fushun City to cope with vulnerability changes based on the analysis results, providing a theoretical basis for achieving sustainable development in such coal-resource-based cities.