Global health risks due to the COVID-19 epidemic by Gaidai reliability method

Abstract

Accurate estimation of epidemic outbreak risks at any given time horizon, and in any national province of interest for COVID-19 (novel coronavirus disease, SARS-COV-2), a contagious disease, is of practical importance. This study proposes novel bio and health system's spatiotemporal reliability method, applicable to multi-regional national health systems. This approach enables accurate estimation of future epidemic outbreak risks, suitable for multiregional biological systems. Daily numbers of recorded patients in two different countries were chosen for this study. This study aimed to benchmark state-of-the-art reliability method, by extracting necessary health system information from nationally observed patient numbers, while taking into account national territorial mapping. Proper confidence bands have been estimated for predicted probability levels. Suggested multivariate reliability methodology may be used for various public health applications, based on available in situ clinical survey data. This study analyzed epidemiological dynamics, based on total numbers of nationally daily-recorded patients. It is recommended to study the percentage of infected patients, with respect to the local population tested. The suggested spatiotemporal methodology being general and well suitable for the latter task.