Banking sector and economic growth in the digital transformation era: insights from maximum likelihood and Bayesian structural equation modeling

Abstract

PurposeIn the digital era, the banking sector has transformed into a powerful intermediary, effectively connecting surplus and deficit units. This dynamic landscape empowers savers to secure their finances and generate returns, while simultaneously enabling businesses and individuals to access capital for investment and promoting economic growth. This study explores the relationships among banking development dimensions – represented by primary assets and liabilities, bank capital (core capital and required reserves) and economic growth as measured by components of gross domestic product (GDP).Design/methodology/approachThe study consolidated monthly balance sheets from digital banks over a 20-year period, resulting in an aggregate monthly balance sheet that reflects the financial position of all digital banks in the Palestinian economy. The research employs both maximum likelihood and Bayesian structural equation modeling to measure the causal pathways of the consolidated balance sheet with the individual components of GDP.FindingsThe results revealed that bank main assets (investments and loans) and liabilities (deposits) collectively explain for 97% of bank capital. Investments and loans demonstrate significant negative correlations with bank capital, while deposits exhibit a positive impact. This leads to a fundamental conclusion that a substantial proportion of retained earnings within the banking sector is reinvested, fueling expansion and growth. Additionally, the results showed a significant relationship between bank capital and various GDP components, including private consumption, gross investment and net exports (p = 0.000). However, while the relationship between bank capital and government spending was insignificant in the maximum likelihood estimation, Bayesian estimation revealed a slight yet positive impact of bank capital on government spending.Originality/valueThis research stands out due to its unique exploration of the intricate relationship between bank sector development dimensions, primary assets and liabilities and their impact on bank capital in the digital era. It offers fresh insights by dividing this connection into specific dimensions and constructs, utilizing a comprehensive two-decade dataset covering the digital banks records.