Assessing the effects of dam regulation on multiscale variations in river hydrological regime and ecological responses

Abstract

Using a combination of the long short-term memory model and hydrological change indicators, this study proposes an assessment framework at inter-annual and intra-annual scales to quantify the hydrological regime changes and ecological event responses caused by the regulation of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The results indicate that during the post-TGD period (2004–2019), 2 indicators of the natural flow regime undergo a high degree of alteration at the inter-annual scale, which increase to 12 when regulated flows are considered. Furthermore, we find that while climate and incoming water change significantly reduces the annual flow and monthly flow during the flood season, it increases the complexity (79%) and ecodeficit at the seasonal scale (94%). Among the 32 indicators of hydrologic alteration, TGD is the dominant factor influencing changes in 20 indicators, increasing the magnitude of low-flow events, decreasing the frequency of high-flow pulses, and advancing the timing of 1-day minimum flow (43 Julian date). From the hydrological perspective, the altered rising water conditions due to TGD regulation may cause an average decrease of 19.5% in the fry abundance for the Four Famous Major Carps.