Futures Thinking in Middle School Science Textbooks

Khalifatulloh Fiel'ardh
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Abstract

This research aims to illuminate the characteristics of "Futures Thinking" components within the interdisciplinary units of "Science, Technology, and Humanity" and "Nature and Humanity" and "Sustainable development" within Japanese middle school science textbooks. Grounded in pre-existing literatures, this research meticulously organizes the essential competencies of future-oriented thinking into three distinct components: "Envisioning the Future," "Predicting the Future," and "Planning for the Future." Each component is further broken down into more precise indicators. For "Envisioning the Future," indicators include perspectives on "Multiple Futures," the "Science of Future," and "Hope and Fears." For "Predicting the Future," we delve into the "Scenario" technique, alongside "Forecasting" and "Backcasting" strategies. "Planning for the Future" assesses the "Precautionary" approach, "Evaluating Action," and understanding "Risk and Changes." The research involved a cross-sectional analysis of content types (such as texts, diagrams) and contexts (individual, regional, national, and global), determining the presence or absence of these indicators. The findings reveal: (1) a more frequent articulation of these competencies within the "Science, Technology, and Humans" unit, (2) a scant representation of "Multiple Futures" and "Scenario" methods among the nine indicators, (3) a prevalence of explanatory text in presenting these concepts, and (4) a consistent inclination towards a global context in the textbooks' narratives. These insights imply an extant gap within the current pedagogical tools, underscoring the importance of an expanded, multifaceted approach to teaching these competencies. The implications for future curriculum development and instructional strategies in middle school science education are profound, necessitating a more integrated approach that resonates with the uncertainties and possibilities of the future.
初中科学教科书中的未来思维
本研究旨在阐明日本中学科学教科书中 "科学、技术与人类 "和 "自然与人类 "以及 "可持续发展 "等跨学科单元中 "未来思维 "要素的特点。在已有文献的基础上,本研究将面向未来的思维的基本能力细致地整理为三个不同的组成部分:"展望未来"、"预测未来 "和 "规划未来"。每个组成部分又进一步细分为更精确的指标。展望未来 "的指标包括对 "多重未来"、"未来科学 "和 "希望与恐惧 "的看法。在 "预测未来 "方面,我们深入研究了 "情景 "技术以及 "预测 "和 "反向预测 "策略。在 "规划未来 "方面,我们评估了 "预防 "方法、"评估行动 "以及对 "风险与变化 "的理解。研究对内容类型(如文本、图表)和背景(个人、地区、国家和全球)进行了横向分 析,确定是否存在这些指标。研究结果显示:(1) 在 "科学、技术与人类 "单元中,这些能力的表述更为频繁;(2) 在九个指标中,"多重未来 "和 "情景 "方法的表述较少;(3) 在表述这些概念时,说明性文字较多;(4) 在教科书的叙述中,始终倾向于全球背景。这些见解表明,目前的教学工具还存在差距,强调了采用扩展的、多方面的方法来教授这些能力的重要性。这对未来初中科学教育的课程开发和教学策略有着深远的影响,需要采取更加综合的方法,与未来的不确定性和可能性产生共鸣。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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