Sarah B. Monica , Davin J. Wallace , Elizabeth J. Wallace , Xiaojing Du , Sylvia G. Dee , John B. Anderson
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Texas receives the second-highest number of tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls per year in the United States. At present, long-term TC projections from climate models remain uncertain due to the short and biased nature of Atlantic TC observations. Sediment archives of past storms can help extend the observational record of TC strikes over the past few millennia. When a TC makes landfall along the central Texas coast, coastal downwelling channels and storm currents transport and deposit coarse sediment to a zone of rapid accumulation along the shelf, known as the Texas Mud Blanket (TMB). This “backwash” process results in expansive storm deposits along the shelf, making this region ideal for paleotempestological reconstructions. Here, we present two sediment cores, located approximately 6 km southeast of Matagorda Island (TX), that collectively yield a ∼4500-year paleohurricane record. 210Pb and 137Cs are utilized in conjunction with radiocarbon ages to produce high-resolution Bayesian age models. One-centimeter interval grain size analyses are used to identify TC deposits. Two-centimeter interval X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) is used as an additional measure to verify depositional mechanisms in this shelf environment. We define an intense paleohurricane event threshold through statistical analysis of mean grain size data. The sediment-derived TC record is correlated to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data from Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation (PHYDA) to bolster our interpretation of the TC record, revealing a coupled relationship between PDSI and TCs since ∼300 yr BP. Over the ∼4500-year period, 24 intense TCs were recorded in the sediment record, yielding a long-term annual landfall probability of ∼0.53%. Additionally, comparisons between other TC records within the Atlantic establish a relationship between enhanced TC activity in the Western Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and TCs formed in the Caribbean Sea.
期刊介绍:
Marine Geology is the premier international journal on marine geological processes in the broadest sense. We seek papers that are comprehensive, interdisciplinary and synthetic that will be lasting contributions to the field. Although most papers are based on regional studies, they must demonstrate new findings of international significance. We accept papers on subjects as diverse as seafloor hydrothermal systems, beach dynamics, early diagenesis, microbiological studies in sediments, palaeoclimate studies and geophysical studies of the seabed. We encourage papers that address emerging new fields, for example the influence of anthropogenic processes on coastal/marine geology and coastal/marine geoarchaeology. We insist that the papers are concerned with the marine realm and that they deal with geology: with rocks, sediments, and physical and chemical processes affecting them. Papers should address scientific hypotheses: highly descriptive data compilations or papers that deal only with marine management and risk assessment should be submitted to other journals. Papers on laboratory or modelling studies must demonstrate direct relevance to marine processes or deposits. The primary criteria for acceptance of papers is that the science is of high quality, novel, significant, and of broad international interest.