The resources of milk and dairy products in Russia in the context of an export-oriented model of agricultural development

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to identify the main trends in the formation and use of the resources of milk and dairy products in Russia, changes in the volume and structure of exports of milk and dairy products, including ice cream, as well as to assess the impact of factors on income from exports of milk and dairy products, ice cream. Economic-statistical and balance-sheet research methods were used. To assess the impact of factors on export revenues, the index method and the method of deterministic factor analysis (the method of chain substitutions) were used. Results. The economic availability of milk and dairy products is decreasing, taking into account structural shifts in milk production by category of farms, stable imports (at the level of 16.76–17.97 % of the formed milk and dairy products resources in 2017-2022) and increasing exports of products. The volume of exports of products in 2022 decreased both in physical and value terms. However, the main export directions remained the same – Kazakhstan, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus. At the same time, exports increased to countries with high product prices, including China. In the Chinese market, dairy products from Russia account for only 0.075–0.087 % of total imports. At the same time, it was revealed that for certain commodity items, Russia can compete in price in the Chinese market with its traditional supplier, New Zealand. The article indicates that the export of milk products, dairy products and ice cream from Russia can only be a tool for selling surplus products, in the future it is necessary to create conditions for increasing milk production, replacing imports and increasing the economic accessibility of dairy products for the population of the country. The scientific novelty lies in assessing the impact of quantitative, structural (assortment, geographical) factors on Russia's export revenues for milk, dairy products and ice cream in value estimation, as well as identifying Russia's price advantages relative to other importers of China.