Generating policy alternatives for decision making: A process model, behavioural issues, and an experiment

Abstract

The generation of alternative policies is essential in complex decision tasks with multiple interests and stakeholders. A diverse set of policies is typically desirable to cover the range of options and objectives. Decision modelling literature has often assumed that clearly defined decision alternatives are readily available. This is not a realistic assumption in practice. We present a structured process model for the generation of policy alternatives in settings that include non-quantifiable elements and where portfolio optimisation approaches are not applicable. Behavioural issues and path dependence as well as heuristics and biases which can occur during the process are discussed. The behavioural experiment compares policy alternatives obtained by using two different portfolio generation techniques. The results of the experiment demonstrate that path dependence can occur in policy generation. We report thinking patterns of subjects which relate to biases and heuristics.