Machine learning-based model for predicting arrival time of container ships

Abstract

Forecasting container ship arrival times is challenging, requiring a thorough analysis for accuracy. This study investigates the effectiveness of machine learning (ML) techniques in maritime transportation. Using a dataset of 581 samples with 8 input variables and 1 output variable (arrival time), ML models are constructed. The Pearson correlation matrix reduces input variables to 7 key factors: freight forwarder, dispatch location, loading and discharge ports, post-discharge location, dispatch day of the week, and dispatch week. The ranking of ML performance for predicting the arrival time of container ships can be arranged in descending order as GB-PSO >  XGB >  RF >  RF-PSO >  GB >  KNN >  SVR. The best ML model, GB-PSO, demonstrates high accuracy in predicting the arrival time of container ships, with R2 = 0.7054, RMSE = 7.4081 days, MAE = 5.1891 days, and MAPE = 0.0993% for the testing dataset. This is a promising research outcome as it seems to be the first time that an approach involving the use of minimal and easily collectible input factors (such as freight forwarder, dispatch time and place, port of loading, post port of discharge, port of discharge) and the combination of a machine learning model has been introduced for predicting the arrival time of container ships.