The Impacts of Financial Market, Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Import Performance of Advanced Economies

Xueting Gong, Dinkneh Gebre Borojo, Jiang Yushi, Miao Miao, Peixuan Wu
{"title":"The Impacts of Financial Market, Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainties on the Import Performance of Advanced Economies","authors":"Xueting Gong, Dinkneh Gebre Borojo, Jiang Yushi, Miao Miao, Peixuan Wu","doi":"10.11130/jei.2024018","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to examine the long-term and short-term diverse effects of economic policy uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty, and financial market uncertainties on the import performance of advanced economies. It employs the Pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG/ARDL) method for the panel of 27 advanced economies using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The study's results reveal that local and global economic and trade policy uncertainties have significant adverse long-term effects on the import performance of advanced economies. Besides, financial market uncertainties negatively impact advanced economies’ imports in the long run. Nonetheless, the results imply that domestic economic and trade policy uncertainties positively affect imports in the short run. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) panel causality test indicated that bidirectional causality exists between financial market and trade policy uncertainty indicators and imports. However, unidirectional causality exists between economic policy indicators and imports. The results are consistent across different sensitivity analyses. Based on these findings, we propose policy implications to control economic, trade and financial market uncertainties and thereby alleviating their impact on the import performance of advanced economies.","PeriodicalId":509384,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Integration","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Integration","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.11130/jei.2024018","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study aims to examine the long-term and short-term diverse effects of economic policy uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty, and financial market uncertainties on the import performance of advanced economies. It employs the Pooled mean group autoregressive distributed lag (PMG/ARDL) method for the panel of 27 advanced economies using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2020. The study's results reveal that local and global economic and trade policy uncertainties have significant adverse long-term effects on the import performance of advanced economies. Besides, financial market uncertainties negatively impact advanced economies’ imports in the long run. Nonetheless, the results imply that domestic economic and trade policy uncertainties positively affect imports in the short run. Moreover, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (D-H) panel causality test indicated that bidirectional causality exists between financial market and trade policy uncertainty indicators and imports. However, unidirectional causality exists between economic policy indicators and imports. The results are consistent across different sensitivity analyses. Based on these findings, we propose policy implications to control economic, trade and financial market uncertainties and thereby alleviating their impact on the import performance of advanced economies.
金融市场、贸易和经济政策不确定性对发达经济体进口绩效的影响
本研究旨在探讨经济政策不确定性、贸易政策不确定性和金融市场不确定性对发达经济体进口绩效的长期和短期不同影响。研究采用集合均值组自回归分布滞后(PMG/ARDL)方法,利用 1996 年第一季度至 2020 年第四季度的季度数据,对 27 个发达经济体的面板数据进行分析。研究结果表明,本地和全球经济及贸易政策的不确定性对发达经济体的进口绩效具有显著的长期不利影响。此外,金融市场的不确定性也会对发达经济体的进口产生长期负面影响。然而,研究结果表明,国内经济和贸易政策的不确定性在短期内会对进口产生积极影响。此外,Dumitrescu-Hurlin(D-H)面板因果检验表明,金融市场和贸易政策不确定性指标与进口之间存在双向因果关系。然而,经济政策指标与进口之间存在单向因果关系。在不同的敏感性分析中,结果是一致的。基于这些发现,我们提出了控制经济、贸易和金融市场不确定性的政策含义,从而减轻其对发达经济体进口绩效的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信