Predictive Modeling of Extreme Weather Forecasting Events: an LSTM Approach

Abstract

For a variety of industries, including agriculture, water resource management, and flood forecasting, accurate rainfall prediction is crucial. The purpose of this research work is to improve rainfall forecast system by employing the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based system. The LSTM utilized in the aforementioned study made predictions by using meteorological input variables such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Numerous elements affect the LSTM network's performance, such as the kind and volume of data, the suitability of the model architecture, and the tuning of hyperparameters. The dataset used for model training spans from January 2015 to December 2021 and includes rainfall data collected from the Zonal Agricultural Research Station (ZARS), Shenda Park, Kolhapur. Prior to model training, the input data undergoes rigorous preprocessing. This preprocessing involves data correction, achieved through moving averages, followed by feature scaling and normalization methods. These steps are crucial to align the dataset with the unique capabilities of the LSTM model. The total dataset has a R squared (R2) value 0.23517 and a mean squared error (MSE) value 92.1839, according to the simulated findings. These metrics affirm the robust performance of the LSTM model, suggesting a high probability of accurate rainfall predictions, particularly in non-linear and complex scenarios. Decision-makers in flood predictions, agriculture, and water resource management will find the knowledge gathered from this study to be useful. They emphasize how crucial it is to use cutting-edge techniques like LSTM to increase rainfall forecast accuracy and guide strategic planning in associated industries.