Climate-driven runoff variability in semi-mountainous reservoirs of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Insights for sustainable water management

Abstract

The Mekong Delta, South East Asia's ‘rice bowl’, sustains more than 18 million people through its agricultural output. This yield is secured by efficient water management systems but is susceptible to climatic changes. As Vietnam's policies aim to optimize the delta's semi-mountainous regions reliant on rain-fed agriculture, this study investigates drought risks and climate change impacts on runoff in the O Ta Soc and O Tuk Sa reservoirs, An Giang Province, Vietnam. Using simulation models, we determined runoff volumes for specific rainfall return periods and climate scenarios for the 2030s and 2050s. Using the storm water management model (SWMM), we simulated the reservoir water balance considering rainfall, evaporation and infiltration. Our findings suggest potentially increased runoff and reservoir storage due to intensified monsoons and reduced off-season rainfall. The 4.77 km² drainage of the O Ta Soc reservoir could benefit from this, while the 2.55 km² drainage of the O Tuk Sa watershed may require alternative water-sourcing strategies. This research offers insights for drought predictions, flood management and water strategies in An Giang. To refine these predictions, future research should consider upcoming rainfall patterns.