Nomogram prediction of vessels encapsulating tumor clusters in small hepatocellular carcinoma ≤ 3 cm based on enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

Abstract

BACKGROUND Vessels encapsulating tumor clusters (VETC) represent a recently discovered vascular pattern associated with novel metastasis mechanisms in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, it seems that no one have focused on predicting VETC status in small HCC (sHCC). This study aimed to develop a new nomogram for predicting VETC positivity using preoperative clinical data and image features in sHCC (≤ 3 cm) patients. AIM To construct a nomogram that combines preoperative clinical parameters and image features to predict patterns of VETC and evaluate the prognosis of sHCC patients. METHODS A total of 309 patients with sHCC, who underwent segmental resection and had their VETC status confirmed, were included in the study. These patients were recruited from three different hospitals: Hospital 1 contributed 177 patients for the training set, Hospital 2 provided 78 patients for the test set, and Hospital 3 provided 54 patients for the validation set. Independent predictors of VETC were identified through univariate and multivariate logistic analyses. These independent predictors were then used to construct a VETC prediction model for sHCC. The model’s performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and clinical decision curve. Additionally, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed to confirm whether the predicted VETC status by the model is associated with early recurrence, just as it is with the actual VETC status and early recurrence. RESULTS Alpha-fetoprotein_lg10, carbohydrate antigen 199, irregular shape, non-smooth margin, and arterial peritumoral enhancement were identified as independent predictors of VETC. The model incorporating these predictors demonstrated strong predictive performance. The AUC was 0.811 for the training set, 0.800 for the test set, and 0.791 for the validation set. The calibration curve indicated that the predicted probability was consistent with the actual VETC status in all three sets. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis demonstrated the clinical benefits of our model for patients with sHCC. Finally, early recurrence was more likely to occur in the VETC-positive group compared to the VETC-negative group, regardless of whether considering the actual or predicted VETC status. CONCLUSION Our novel prediction model demonstrates strong performance in predicting VETC positivity in sHCC (≤ 3 cm) patients, and it holds potential for predicting early recurrence. This model equips clinicians with valuable information to make informed clinical treatment decisions.