The effect of bubbles on production: The state of the literature

Abstract

In this paper, a comprehensive review is carried out on the strand of the literature related to the effects of bubbles on production, which includes the scarce empirical literature. The content is structured according to the bubble phase, since a major part of the literature considers that during the boom, there can be a crowding‐in effect that can even offset the crowding‐out effect derived from the bursting of the bubble. This possibility is due to the influence of two opposing mechanisms: a substitution effect derived from the possible diversion of resources previously allocated to productive investments, and an income effect derived from the fact that investors have more resources obtained from the sale of the bubble assets and from the role of these assets as collateral in loan operations. Studies also show the negative effect derived from the involvement of banks in bubbles. In this paper, both the results of the research and the main methodological framework are reviewed, thereby identifying as a gap in the literature to be considered for future research: the scarcity of empirical research, of studies that include demand factors, of papers that address bubbles in nonfinancial and nonhousing markets, and in undeveloped and emerging countries.