The Effect of Immigration on Housing Prices: Evidence from 382 German Districts

Abstract

This study provides evidence of the causal impact of immigration on housing prices and rents using an extensive dataset from Germany that covers 382 administrative districts over the period 2004 − 2020. Employing a panel-data approach and a manually constructed Bartik instrument, we show that international migration has a significantly positive short-term effect on flat prices and rents. House prices are not significantly affected. We estimate that an increase in international migration of 1% of the initial district population causes a hike in flat prices of up to 3% as well as a hike in flat rents of about 1%. The increase in flat prices is more than twice as high as this at the lower end of the market, whereas the flat rental market demonstrates a more linear response. We also discover that immigration’s impact on flat prices and rents does not significantly differ across rural and urban areas within the country.