Effect of Meteorological Data Assimilation on Regional Air Quality Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), a type of online coupled chemistry-meteorology model (CCMM), considers the interaction between air quality and meteorology to improve air quality forecasting. Meteorological data assimilation (DA) can be used to reduce uncertainty in meteorological field, which is one factor causing prediction uncertainty in the CCMM. In this study, WRF-Chem and three-dimensional variational DA were used to examine the impact of meteorological DA on air quality and meteorological forecasts over the Korean Peninsula. The nesting model domains were configured over East Asia (outer domain) and the Korean Peninsula (inner domain). Three experiments were conducted by using different DA domains to determine the optimal model domain for the meteorological DA. When the meteorological DA was performed in the outer domain or both the outer and inner domains, the root-mean-square error (RMSE), bias of the predicted particulate matter (PM) concentrations, and the RMSE of predicted meteorological variables against the observations were smaller than those in the experiment where the meteorological DA was performed only in the inner domain. This indicates that the improvement of the synoptic meteorological fields by DA in the outer domain enhanced the meteorological initial and boundary conditions for the inner domain, subsequently improving air quality and meteorological predictions. Compared to the experiment without meteorological DA, the RMSE and bias of the meteorological and PM variables were smaller in the experiments with DA. The effect of meteorological DA on the improvement of PM predictions lasted for approximately 58–66 h, depending on the case. Therefore, the uncertainty reduction in the meteorological initial condition by the meteorological DA contributed to a reduction of the forecast errors of both meteorology and air quality.