Performance evaluation of varies climate models using observed and regional climate models for the Katar Watershed, Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate models are fundamental tools to estimates the reliable future climate change and its effects on the water resources and agriculture in basins. However, all climate models are not equally performed for all areas. Therefore, determining the most appropriate climate models for a specific study area is essential. The focus of this study was to evaluate the performance of the regional climate models with regard to simulating precipitation, and temperatures at Katar watershed. This study examines the performance of fourteen CORDEX-AFRICA-220 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the period of 1984–2005 using statistical metrics such as Pearson correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and bias. The findings indicated that GERICS-MPI was better performed in representing Areta, and Bokoji station, GERICS-IPSL was better representing in Assela, Ketergenet, and Sagure station, CCCma-CanESM2-AFR22, and RCA4-ICHEC performed relatively better in representing the mean annual observed rainfall at the Kulumsa, and Ogolcho station respectively. However, RCA4-CSIRO performed weakly in estimation of annual rainfall at all stations. RCM model such as GERICS-MPI was relatively better than the others in replicating the annual pattern of the maximum temperature at Areta, Bokoji, and Ketergenet stations. Similarly, GERICS-IPSL were relatively better in replicating the annual maximum temperature at Assela, and Sagure stations, CCCma-CanESM2-AFR22 at Kulumsa station, and RCA4-ICHEC at Ogolcho station performed well in capturing the observed and simulated annual maximum temperature. Better performance was observed on minimum temperature at CCCma-CanESM2-AFR22 at Areta, Assela, and Ketergenet stations, GERICS-MOHE-AFR-22 at Bokoji station, GERICS-MPI at Kulumsa, and Ogolcho stations, RAC4-NOAA-2G at Sagure stations. However, weak performance was observed RCA4-CSIRO at all stations. RCM models of GERICS-MPI, and CCLM4-NCC-AFR-22 performed better than the other RCM models for correction of annual rainfall in Katar watershed. However, poor performance was observed at RCA4-ICHEC model on Katar watershed. The GERICS-MPI model performed well. However, poor performance was observed at RCA4-ICHEC on maximum temperature, and GERICS-NOAA-2M on minimum temperature in Katar watershed.