Comparative analysis of key factors influencing urban green space in Mashhad, Iran (1988–2018)

Abstract

This paper analyzed the role of national economic factors, in addition to some key city-level variables, in the variation of the urban green space (UGS) in Mashhad City (Iran) during three decades (1998–2018). The correlation result revealed the effects of the increasing trend of land price, population rate, and construction of built-up areas in the decreasing trend of UGS in the study area (R from − 0.95 to -0.99 at p-value > 95%). Also, the country-level economic factors, i.e., GDP per capita, oil price, export total value, and FDI, represented the overall increasing trend from 1988 to 2018, correlating with the decrease of green space areas (R from − 0.76 to -0.92 at p-value > 75%). Some statistical analyses, such as the run-test, the skewness and kurtosis tests, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and the ANOVA test were done to confirm the normality of the data distribution and reliability of the results. Ultimately, clustering the research variables based on the significance and confidence levels of the estimated correlation results revealed that the change in the oil price and national export values in the petroleum-dependent economy of Iran can be assumed as the lead key economic factors to fluctuate all city-level variables, particularly the UGS variations.