Does the optimal land use pattern for cross-regional cooperation change at different stages of urbanization? Evidence from the trade-off between urban growth scenarios and SDGs indicators

Abstract

Promoting regional development with overall arrangement is an important topic for high-quality development of urbanization in the new era. However, few research has paid attention to the optimal land use pattern in different stages from the perspective of cross-regional cooperation. In this study, we used the northern part of Guangzhou as an example and simulated its land use changes using the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model under multiple development scenarios. A trade-off framework was subsequently proposed to explore the optimal land use patterns in 2030, 2040, and 2050 b y referring to the indicators of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results showed that: (1) Setting up an ecological network for joint regional protection as a constraint in land use simulation can not only help reduce conflicts of land use but also contribute to achieving ecologically-oriented development (EOD). (2) The optimal mode of cross-regional coordination typically evolves from a monocentric to a bicentric configuration, followed by a point-axis arrangement, and ultimately culminates in a polycentric structure. (3) The development of land use, infrastructure, and ecological elements is a gradual process towards enhancing cross-regional cooperation. These findings can provide planning references for local governments to promote the cross-regional cooperation.