What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task-based data

IF 2.8 4区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economia Politica Pub Date : 2021-07-23 DOI:10.1007/s40888-021-00237-5

Nicola Cassandro, Marco Centra, Dario Guarascio, Piero Esposito

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Abstract

Relying on a unique longitudinal integrated database supplying micro-level information on labor market transitions (concerning the 2011–2017 period) and occupation task characteristics (e.g. routine-task intensity), this paper provides fresh evidence of the determinants of unemployment risk in Italy. We find that workers employed in routine-intensive occupations (measured with the RTI proposed by Acemoglu and Autor in Handb Labor Econ 4B:1043–1171, 2011) display—on average—higher unemployment risks than the rest of the workforce. This result is driven by workers employed in occupations entailing a large proportion of routine cognitive tasks and it is concentrated in high and medium–low skill occupations. In addition, the distribution of unemployment risk and its relation with routine-task intensity varies significantly across sectors—with higher risk in manufacturing and construction—confirming the importance of industry-level economic, technological and institutional heterogeneities. Finally, by exploring the gender dimension, we find that that being in a routine-intensive occupation increases unemployment risk for male workers only.

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是什么推动了就业与失业之间的转变？来自意大利任务型数据的证据

本文利用独特的纵向综合数据库，提供了劳动力市场转型（2011-2017 年期间）和职业任务特征（如日常任务强度）的微观信息，为意大利失业风险的决定因素提供了新的证据。我们发现，从事日常工作密集型职业的工人（以 Acemoglu 和 Autor 在 2011 年 Handb Labor Econ 4B:1043-1171 中提出的 RTI 为衡量标准）的平均失业风险高于其他劳动力。导致这一结果的原因是，受雇于需要完成大量常规认知任务的职业的工人，而且主要集中在高技能和中低技能职业。此外，失业风险的分布及其与常规任务强度的关系在不同行业之间存在显著差异--制造业和建筑业的风险更高--这证实了行业层面的经济、技术和制度异质性的重要性。最后，通过探讨性别维度，我们发现从事日常工作密集型职业仅会增加男性工人的失业风险。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economia Politica ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： This journal publishes peer-reviewed articles that link theory and analysis in political economy, promoting a deeper understanding of economic realities and more effective courses of policy action. Established in 1984, the journal has kept pace with the times in disseminating high-quality and influential research aimed at establishing fruitful links between theories, approaches and institutions. With this relaunch (which combines Springer’s worldwide scientific scope with the Italian cultural roots of il Mulino and Fondazione Edison, whose research has been published by the two mentioned publishers for many years), the journal further reinforces its position in the European and international economic debate and scientific community. Furthermore, this move increases its pluralistic attention to the role that – at the micro, sectoral, and macro level – institutions and innovation play in the unfolding of economic change at different stages of development.