Effects of the climate change scenario on Coffea canephora production in Brazil using modeling tools

IF 1.1 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 ECOLOGY

Tropical Ecology Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI:10.1007/s42965-024-00350-z

Marinaldo Loures Ferreira, Ronnie Von Dos Santos Veloso, Gildriano Soares De Oliveira, Renan Batista Queiroz, Fausto Henrique Vieira Araújo, André Medeiros De Andrade, Ricardo Siqueira Da Silva

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Abstract

Coffee is a crucial crop for the economy of several countries. It contributes substantially to the livelihoods of millions of small producers worldwide. Coffea canephora represents 40% of the world's production of beans. Coffea canephora is a perennial crop, it is sensitive to climate, and several production areas in Brazil may become unfit for C. canephora cultivation due to expected climate change. Thus, knowledge of the temporal dynamics of favorable climate conditions for C. canephora in Brazil is necessary. This work aims to elaborate the CLIMEX model to predict the climatic suitability for C. canephora in Brazil in the current climate and front of climate changes for 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100. The model shows a good agreement between the density and the growth rate of the species, which indicates significant reliability of the results in the proposed model. Our modeling results show that there has been a reduction in the areas very favorable to C. Canephora over the years, in the North, Southeast, and the entire east coast of the Northeast regions. Compared to the current scenario, the model projection reduces by 49, 73, 82, and 88% in 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2100, respectively. The results may help long-term planning strategies to mitigate the economic effects of the climate change scenario on C. canephora production in Brazil.

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利用建模工具分析气候变化情景对巴西咖啡生产的影响

咖啡是一些国家的重要经济作物。它为全世界数百万小生产者的生计做出了重大贡献。咖啡豆占世界咖啡豆产量的 40%。咖啡豆是一种多年生作物，对气候很敏感，巴西的一些产区可能会因为预期的气候变化而变得不适合种植咖啡豆。因此，有必要了解巴西 C. canephora 的有利气候条件的时间动态。这项工作旨在详细阐述 CLIMEX 模型，以预测巴西在当前气候条件下以及 2030、2050、2070 和 2100 年气候变化前的气候适宜性。模型显示该物种的密度和生长率之间有很好的一致性，这表明所建模型的结果非常可靠。我们的模型结果表明，多年来，在北部、东南部和整个东北部东海岸地区，对 C. Canephora 非常有利的区域有所减少。与当前情况相比，模型预测在 2030 年、2050 年、2070 年和 2100 年分别减少了 49%、73%、82% 和 88%。这些结果可能有助于制定长期规划战略，以减轻气候变化情景对巴西金花菜生产的经济影响。

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来源期刊

Tropical Ecology ECOLOGY-

CiteScore

3.30

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Tropical Ecology is devoted to all aspects of fundamental and applied ecological research in tropical and sub-tropical ecosystems. Nevertheless, the cutting-edge research in new ecological concepts, methodology and reviews on contemporary themes, not necessarily confined to tropics and sub-tropics, may also be considered for publication at the discretion of the Editor-in-Chief. Areas of current interest include: Biological diversity and its management; Conservation and restoration ecology; Human ecology; Ecological economics; Ecosystem structure and functioning; Ecosystem services; Ecosystem sustainability; Stress and disturbance ecology; Ecology of global change; Ecological modeling; Evolutionary ecology; Quantitative ecology; and Social ecology. The Journal Tropical Ecology features a distinguished editorial board, working on various ecological aspects of tropical and sub-tropical systems from diverse continents. Tropical Ecology publishes: · Original research papers · Short communications · Reviews and Mini-reviews on topical themes · Scientific correspondence · Book Reviews